A 9-3 record would give some SEC teams a chance at playoff qualification, but 10-2 is a golden ticket. Connelly’s latest formula gives 10 SEC teams a 5% chance or better of finishing at least 10-2. Strictly speaking, these percentages do not represent the chance that a team will make the playoff — only its chance of finishing 10-2 or better.

ESPN FPI gives the Vols a 38.5 percent chance in making the 12-team playoff field for the 2025 season. Texas has the best odds to make the College Football Playoff (83.9 percent), while Georgia (78.6), Ohio State (70.6), Alabama (66.2) and Penn State (63.8) are top five for percentage chances to play for a national championship.