The crude oil market's rather sanguine reaction to the U.S. threats to India over its continued purchases of Russian oil is effectively a bet that very little will actually happen.

For years, India has balanced close partnerships with both Washington and Moscow, even throughout Ukraine war. Trump is finally demanding it picks a side

The US has warned India that it could face increased secondary tariffs if discussions between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday fail to yield positive results.